“I want to talk to you about first the jobs report last hour we went into the Senate bill that you’ve got to call your senators and tell them not to pass this. I know it’s Dead on Arrival according to the speaker of the house, but it can’t be passed in the Senate either. Don’t let any of this slip through. If you want some more information, we’ll give you more information later on in the program, but if you miss the first hour of the broadcast, you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. Today’s podcast will have all of the information you need on that.
Now let me go back to Friday because there was something that came out last week and everybody was saying, ‘Oh my gosh, the jobs, the jobs report, oh America is working like nobody’s business.’ Stu, give me some of the headlines that you found over the weekend on this jobs report. Headlines, yeah, one of the big things you hear about, it was incredibly great, it was wonderful, the economy is wonderful, and this is sort of a peering into what we’re going to be seeing over the next eight or nine months as we get closer to the election. Continued below the vid from War Room
The Job Numbers You Have Been Seeing For The Past 4 Years Have Been Overestimated By 9 Million People @DaveBratVA7th pic.twitter.com/1cMdjryV8m
— Jayne Zirkle (@JayneZirkle) February 5, 2024
Let me give you this example from the New York Times today, just listen to the framing of this, ‘Why are Americans wary while the economy is healthy? Look at Nevada, economic shocks over two decades combined with Reliance on vol casinos have undermined confidence despite an economy that’s bustling.’ A couple of facts stated there right, yeah, and that the economy is bustling, it’s bustling, that’s a fact. It is bustling, and it is healthy. Now why, the question here is not what’s going on with the economy, the question is what’s going on with people’s minds, as if why that indicates why they don’t understand the economy is bustling, why don’t they understand the economy economy is healthy. It’s not a question about whether the economy is healthy or not, no no no, it is.
This is why they are going after disinformation like the information I’m going to give to you next. They’ll say this is disinformation, and you’re too stupid to understand that the economy is bustling. You’re going to see these kinds of headlines all the way up to the election, okay, all the way up to the election. They’ve got to convince Americans that it’s just them. All right, so let’s look at this report. They reported last week that in January, we unexpectedly added 353,000 jobs, that’s the most since January 23 when it was 482, double the forecast of 185,000 jobs last month. They say we, my gosh, it was 353, and most people expected only 185,000 jobs that were created. continued below the Goldco Info
Now let’s look into it. The average hourly earnings spiked from 4.1 to 4.5, that’s the highest since last September. They spiked, okay, now let’s look at this for just a second. Did people get a raise? Did the hourly earnings actually go up because of actual wages? No, it’s a trick, it’s a trap. They actually Rose because the Bureau of Labor Statistics decided to slash the number of estimated hours that everybody was working. They said the hours went from 34.3 to 34.1, which may not sound like a lot, but that’s why your hourly looks like it’s going up because they changed that one metric. And if that metric is true, the last time the work week was this low was when the economy was shut down because of covid, okay, so that doesn’t sound healthy.
In January, the BLS conducted the annual rebenchmarking and update of seasonal adjustment factors. Long story short here, what was until December a decline in jobs has now been miraculously transformed into gains. Consider this, before the revision, the average monthly job gain in 2021 was largely unchanged, and while the average monthly gain in 2022 was revised lower, this was purposely goalseek to make 2023 appear stronger. And indeed, the average monthly increase in 2023 has been revised from 225,000 to 255, which would be great, which would be great if only it wasn’t for the almost entirely due to the latest choice of seasonal adjustment ments.
Ready? The Biden Administration numbers are now clearly rising, even as the impartial ADP, which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate because they’re actually looking at the payroll, it shows an accelerating slowdown. Seasonal adjustments, the January print was all about seasonals because while the seasonally adjusted payrolls was up 353,000, the unadjusted was down 2.635 million, that’s 3 million jobs different. So here, here’s, let me break it, 10% error rate, just a 10% error rate in the seasonal adjustment, that’s roughly where it always falls, it would wipe out the entire gain and make January increase a decline.
Then again, this is the case with every January jobs report. Because the actual change in jobs in the first month of the year this year is down anywhere between 2.5 and 3 million. The latest Divergence between the establishment payrolls and then the much more accurate household actual unemployment or employment survey, the BLS claims 353,000 payrolls were added, but the household survey that counts the number of actually employed workers this time dropped by 31,000. Okay, wait a minute, wait a minute, so which one is right?
This means that the payroll series hit all-time highs every month since December 2020. The level of unemployment has barely budged in the last year. Worse, this has opened up the number of unemployed or employed workers, if the numbers are true, the way they’ve adjusted everything, the number of employed workers would need to soar by 9 million to catch up to what the payroll claims is the actual employment situation.
BLS reports that in January 24, the US had 133.000 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. That’s great until you look back one year and find that in February 23, the US had 132 33.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does a year later. So wait, we had 133.000 full-time jobs last December or January, but this January it’s supposed to be great, but last January we had 133.25, and all the jobs, yes, they’re part-time.
But here’s something even better, the number of native born workers is down again, it has slid by a massive 56,000. Add this to the December data, we get a near record of 1.9 million in a plunge from native born workers in the last two months. Two million native born workers have lost their jobs, and the job creation, all of it in the last four years, has been exclusively foreign-born workers. Zero job creation for native born workers since July of 2018.
So tell me we’re getting healthier, I don’t think we are. I think people are working part-time jobs a lot more, and people who were born here in America are not getting jobs because all of the job growth has been with non-native born workers. ‘Oh, you’re only saying that because you hate.’ No, I’m only saying you cuz that’s what the numbers say. Period.”
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