Gavin Newsom’s career is unraveling. – Liberal Hivemind

2019–2023 Growth: By 2023, HUD reported California’s homeless population at approximately 181,399, a roughly 20% increase from 2018. The 2024 count, cited in 2025 sources, estimated 186,000 homeless individuals, indicating a further rise to about 23% above 2018 levels.

Unsheltered Homelessness: California’s unsheltered population remained significant, with about 50% of the nation’s unsheltered homeless. However, growth in unsheltered homelessness slowed to 0.45% annually under Newsom, compared to a 37,000-person increase (roughly 7% annually) from 2014–2019. Nationally, unsheltered homelessness grew by 7% in 2024, suggesting California’s rate was below the national trend.

Subgroup Trends: California saw the largest decrease in veteran homelessness nationwide in 2023–2024 and reductions in youth homelessness, though exact figures are unavailable. Overall homelessness, however, continued to rise, particularly in urban areas like Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Regional Variations: Los Angeles County’s 2023 count showed a slight decrease in homelessness (first in years), attributed to local efforts like Mayor Karen Bass’s initiatives, supported by state funds. However, other areas, like Sacramento, reported persistent growth.

Housing Costs: California’s median home price rose from $570,000 in 2018 to $850,000 by 2023, and median rents increased by about 20%. Nearly 1.9 million renter households (30% of renters) paid over 50% of income on rent, increasing vulnerability to homelessness.

Economic Pressures: Inflation, stagnant wages for low-income workers, and a shortage of 1.2 million affordable homes exacerbated the crisis. Approximately one-third of households live in or near poverty, with 10,000 new homeless individuals annually.

Policy Challenges: Critics argue that Newsom’s policies, like prison releases and lax drug enforcement, worsened street conditions, though evidence is mixed. Supporters highlight structural barriers, like federal court rulings (e.g., Martin v. Boise, overturned in 2024), which limited encampment clearances until recently.

Homekey Program: $3 billion to convert hotels/motels into housing, creating 12,500 units at $144,000 per unit (vs. $380,000–$570,000 for new construction). Deemed cost-effective but limited in scale.

Homeless Housing, Assistance, and Prevention (HHAP): $1 billion annually (2019–2022) to local governments, with $827 million awarded in 2024. Funding requires local plans to reduce homelessness, but early plans were criticized as unambitious (e.g., 2% reduction goal by 2024).

Encampment Resolution Fund (ERF): $1 billion total, with $737 million disbursed by 2024, helping 20,888 people transition from encampments. In 2024, $131 million was awarded to 18 communities.

Proposition 1 (2024): A $6.4 billion bond, with $3.3 billion allocated in 2025 for behavioral health housing and 5,000 treatment beds, addressing mental health-driven homelessness.

A 2024 state audit found that the California Interagency Council on Homelessness failed to track $24 billion in spending or evaluate program outcomes beyond 2021, calling it a “data desert.” Two of five audited programs (Homekey, CalWORKS) were cost-effective, but three (HHAP, ERF, State Rental Assistance) lacked sufficient data

Critics, including X posts, claim mismanagement, with homelessness rising despite spending (e.g., $160,000 per homeless person). Some allege funds were lost to a “homeless industrial complex.

Newsom vetoed a 2024 bill (AB 2903) for annual spending evaluations, citing redundancy, though critics argued it was to avoid scrutiny

2019–2020: $214.8 billion total, $147.8 billion General Fund. Newsom proposed $1 billion for homelessness, including the California Access to Housing Fund. Surpluses continued, enabling expanded social programs.

2020–2021: $202.1 billion total, $134.6 billion General Fund. COVID-19 reduced revenues, but federal aid and one-time cuts balanced the budget. Homelessness funding grew to $12 billion over two years, including $5.8 billion for Homekey.

2021–2022: $262.6 billion total, $196.8 billion General Fund. A $76 billion surplus (from high-income taxes) fueled record spending, including $12 billion more for homelessness and $10.3 billion for housing.

2022–2023: $286.4 billion total, $224 billion General Fund. Another surplus ($45 billion) supported $15.3 billion for homelessness (e.g., $750 million for encampments, $3 billion for Homekey). Newsom proposed health care for undocumented immigrants and climate initiatives.

2023–2024: $310.8 billion total, $225.9 billion General Fund. A $31.5 billion deficit emerged as tax revenues fell post-COVID. Newsom maintained $15.3 billion for homelessness but proposed cuts elsewhere

2024–2025: $297.7 billion total, $211.5 billion General Fund. A $44.9–$45 billion deficit led to $1.76 billion in cuts to housing/homelessness programs (e.g., $260 million from HHAP, $75 million from Multifamily Housing Program). $500 million was restored to Low-Income Housing Tax Credits.

Proposition 1: $3.3 billion in 2025 for behavioral health

Worsened but Context Matters: A 20–23% increase in homelessness (151,278 to 186,000) is significant, but slower growth in unsheltered homelessness (0.45% vs. 7% nationally) and veteran/youth reductions suggest targeted progress. Structural issues (housing costs, poverty) outweigh policy impacts, and data gaps hinder evaluation.

Policy Impact: Homekey and Proposition 1 are promising, but HHAP and ERF lack clear outcomes. Newsom’s encampment clearances and accountability measures respond to public frustration but face pushback for being punitive or insufficient.

Public Sentiment: X posts reflect anger, exaggerating increases (e.g., “50%” vs. 23%) and alleging fraud, though audits confirm tracking failures, not theft. Newsom’s narrative of local failure resonates but deflects state responsibility

Massive Investment, Mixed Results: $24–$27 billion for homelessness is unprecedented, but deficits led to $1.76 billion in cuts, threatening gains. Budget growth (2019–2023) enabled bold programs, but fiscal constraints now limit ambition.

Accountability Gaps: Audits and vetoed oversight bills fuel perceptions of waste, amplified on X. New reporting rules may improve transparency, but their impact is untested.

Balancing Act: Newsom prioritized homelessness amid competing demands (health care, climate), but public focus on visible encampments and rising counts overshadows achievements like Homekey’s efficiency

Budget surpluses enabled heavy homelessness spending, but deficits forced cuts just as programs scaled up, risking setbacks. Rising homelessness despite investment reflects systemic barriers (housing costs) and implementation flaws (data tracking, local plans). Newsom’s push for accountability aligns budget and policy goals but struggles against public perception of failure, as seen in X sentiment.