A Trump 2024 LANDSLIDE Victory May Be INEVITABLE! – Latest Polls - Whatfinger News' Choice Clips
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A Trump 2024 LANDSLIDE Victory May Be INEVITABLE! – Latest Polls

So Donald Trump leads every single poll in the aggregate. He leads Joe Biden by nearly 4 and a half percentage points, and it’s crazy to think about because in the entire calendar year of 2020, Donald Trump led Joe Biden in just two national polls. Now he leads Biden in every national poll, and on top of that, he leads Biden by 4 and 1 half points. Usually, the polls have underestimated Donald Trump. There’s no guarantee that they’re doing it this time, but it’s still very possible that they are. And there’s also plenty of higher profile third-party candidates that are going to be running for president this election cycle, and it begs the question: can Donald Trump actually win in a landslide?  Continued below the video

 

In this video, I wanted to make the case for it. Yes, it’s far from a guarantee, but it’s entirely possible that Donald Trump could run the table and shock a lot of people in November. And you look at Biden’s approval rating in some polls, some historically accurate polls like Pew Research, Biden’s job approval is just 33%, and that’s abysmal. Donald Trump doesn’t have the highest favorable rating overall, but in most polls, it’s, you know, 10 points or more higher than this. And Biden disapprove have more options now if they also disapprove of Donald Trump to the point where Biden’s not really in the best shape.

And you want to look at Biden on every single issue. We’ve done this frequently, but on the economy, he’s down by 20 points; foreign policy, he’s down by over 20; inflation, he’s down by 30 something; crime, he’s down by 20; immigration, he’s down by 32. And 74 percent or higher of the country believes that this country is not necessarily in the right direction. It’s actually 75% say it’s either on the wrong track or they’re undecided, only 24% say it’s in the right direction.

So, can Donald Trump win in a 400 electoral vote landslide? Well, it’s a little bit difficult, but I’m going to outline the conditions, and if these conditions are met, Donald Trump could very well get close to that. Now, it is true we don’t live in the 1980s anymore; we have a different culture, we have different trends, we have different demography. We are a lot more polarized. It’s unlikely that even in a best case scenario for Trump or a worst-case scenario for Biden or vice versa, that you will see a 400 electoral vote landslide occur. But given certain conditions that may persist, could it get close to that? Could Trump get in the mid to high 300s? It’s entirely possible, and here are really the conditions that could happen that would bolster Trump’s odds for this to happen.

Number one would be Biden’s approval continues its downward trajectory. It’ll stay in the 30s, it possibly could dip. It’s already lower than Hillary Clinton’s favorability was back in the 2016 presidential election where Donald Trump won by, you know, a 306 to 232 electoral vote margin. And Donald Trump’s numbers have gone up since then, so it’s possible that Donald Trump could expand his lead over that total. On top of that, you could see continued turmoil at the border, the economy not working for a majority of Americans. Biden’s touting an economic recovery, but at the same time, you look at this, and a majority of Americans just don’t see it, and Biden doubling down on it is not necessarily going to help him. If a majority of Americans are not seeing the economy improve, if a majority of Americans see inflation as a disaster, 32% approve of the way that Biden has handled it despite it quote-unquote slowing down or whatever. So you look at this, if this continues or gets worse, and Donald Trump effectively hits him on it, well, there you go.

Also, on top of that, we have the fact that you will see a higher third-party vote share that is not usually even factored into these polls. Voters who are not really fans of Joe Biden or Donald Trump, they have more options, and Trump’s base is more loyal, it’s more sustainable. You get those voters out to vote, Trump’s going to have like a floor of 70 million votes. Biden’s is a little bit more rocky. If turnout dips overall, but you also see Biden voters going to third parties, meanwhile, Donald Trump’s support remains relatively intact, that’s going to be good news for Trump and bad news for Joe Biden, especially in like the five-way race where Donald Trump is actually leading by 6.2%. That would be a landslide on the map.  Continued below the tweet

On top of that, we have to talk about certain trends because if Biden is struggling to turn out black voters because his approval rating with them is crumbling, and if he doesn’t exactly get out enough support, well, it’s going to be problematic for him. That doesn’t mean black voters are going to vote Republican, but if they dip in overall turnout, that’s going to hurt Biden significantly. Also, if Hispanics continue to move right and Trump possibly gets in the mid-40s with them, that’s a tall task for sure, but if it happens, which if you carry over the trend, well, Trump would be in a very good position.

Also, we have to understand that, yeah, possible Trump gets acquitted on one of these cases, which possibly could help him or could neutralize the opposition and the attack lines, and they really don’t have much to attack him on other than abortion. But when it’s all said and done, Donald Trump is not exactly some hardliner on the issue, and his messaging kind of neutralizes that. The same thing with Social Security, other entitlements compared to other Republicans. And there’s also other options in this race like Stein and Cornell West that people on the far left can gravitate to, and some of the never Trump Biden voters in 2020 who may have voted for like Mitt Romney or Bush in the past, well, they possibly could defect to No Labels. Dean Phillips or Joe Manchin might be the nominee there, which could pull more voters away from Biden too.

So on top of that, you have to talk about campaign quality. Biden so far, his messaging, not entirely sure it’s going to work out. They’re throwing everything they can at Donald Trump, but it’s not rattling him. So obviously, if Trump continues to stay on message, I think it’s going to bode very well for him. On top of that, the polling error, even if you factor a polling error on top of the polls we see here in Trump’s direction like we saw in 2016 or 2020, again, not a guarantee, but if it happens, Trump could win the popular vote by a sizable margin, which would mean that he’s going to be winning certain states that originally were not in play.  Continued below the poll

National Poll | TIPP Insights – 1/3-5 – Top Pollster has Trump beating Biden in these key issues. Reducing Taxes: Trump 45% Biden 34% Immigration: Trump 49% Biden 35% Growing the Economy: Trump 47% Biden 37% Controlling Spending: Trump 43% Biden 36%  TIPP Poll

So without further ado, let’s put this on the map. We’re going to fill out the map, we’re going to fill out all of the safe red states here on this map, and also we would be moving Texas, Florida, um, and Iowa and Ohio to the safe red column in this prediction as well as Alaska and Maine’s second district. Keep in mind the third party vote share is going to be eating into Biden’s total, so you talk about making the case, can he get close to 400? That’s really what it is. Of course, Biden’s going to win California by a safe margin, probably Washington State, and probably some states on the Eastern Seaboard. He’s going to be winning these states by more than 10 points regardless. So there you go, his floor is probably somewhere around 94 compared to in the 200s.

Now, Trump, on top of that, would win Georgia by a sizable margin, North Carolina by a sizable margin, Michigan as well cuz you look at some of the polls if you want to go down that route for the best case scenario. Michigan, a state that heavily has an economic focus in presidential elections, well then I think you could make the case that some of the polls that are lofty for Trump, depending on turnout and the third party vote share, could be right. You also would have to put a state like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into that column, you know, either the lean column or maybe even the likely column there, just based off of the third party vote share. So he’s already at 229. You would also win Arizona and Nevada, probably relatively convincingly there. The margins are definitely a little bit arbitrary, but then on top of that, you talk about adding states that ordinarily would not vote Republican like Minnesota because when there is a high third party vote share, Republicans in a state like Minnesota actually perform relatively well. You also would see Trump pick off New Hampshire, you would see him pick off Maine, and if you get what you get in terms of that Hispanic vote share working out in your favor, combined with the third parties, you also could pick off a state like New Mexico. Maybe you could end up picking off a state like the state of Virginia. It’s a little bit lofty, but in a best-case scenario landslide scenario, yeah, he would probably get Virginia, he probably would get Nebraska’s second district. He wouldn’t get a majority of the vote in these places, but he sure as hell would get close to it.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden, 40% to 34%, with the rest of the voters undecided. This is above the 3% error range. That means Trump would win the election if it were held today. – Reuters

So then you’re looking at it like this, this is probably the best case scenario if not close to it. Even if he cracks 400, I just can’t see him taking Colorado just given the fact that the state has culturally shifted, you have a lot of liberals from California moving in. I really can’t see Colorado in any case voting for Trump. I would probably even say that Illinois flips first. I mean, is it possible? It’s possible if you really see Biden dipping with black turnout significantly, if you see Trump making inroads with Hispanic significantly, and running it up with these white working-class voters downstate, and you see the third party vote share significantly eating into Biden, yeah, it’s possible. If you want to talk about this epic landslide, he’d have to, you know, eventually go out there and win Illinois if he wants to get to 400.  Continued below Bris poll

He’d have to win New Jersey, he’d have to win Connecticut, he would have to win one of the remaining states or at least a combination that would get him 13 electoral votes. It’s a little tough to see. Maybe a state like New York if Trump picks like Zeldin for VP or something like that, his chances get bolstered, and maybe if you do better in the city of New York and you are able to still run it up upstate. Is it possible that Trump could crack 400? I mean, looking at the math here, that would kind of be his best path to 400. Do I anticipate it to happen? Not necessarily. I think that he will probably get above 300 at the rate things are going in a realistic scenario. I think in a best-case scenario, he could get the mid-300s, especially if you have a very high third-party vote share and especially if not a lot exactly changes with this administration. I think he will win the popular vote. I think he will do better in New York. I think he will do better in California regardless. I think there’s a lot of room to grow in Florida at the presidential level. I think you could see Texas turn a corner just because this administration is unpopular.

We hear a lot of people talking about but the midterms, but the midterms. I don’t want to hear about the midterms because Donald Trump was not on the ballot in the midterm. Certain candidates that he may endorse or that may support him are not going to be the same as him regarding inspiring turnout, and these generic Democrats that ran and were nominated on the other side were not exactly the same person or the same people that Joe Biden is. They’re not nearly as unpopular as Joe Biden is. So overall, I don’t really buy into the whole midterm argument. I do think that, you know, 400 electoral votes for Donald Trump is obviously a little bit lofty, and that we know, but is it possible that he wins in a decisive victory kind of similar to Obama’s 2008 victory in terms of the Electoral College? I could absolutely see it.

I mean, it’s interesting to also watch a state like Hawaii where Joe Biden completely fumbled the bag regarding the wildfires thing there, but either way, you look at this, Donald Trump is in a very good position to win the presidential election. He absolutely is, and I’m not saying that for people to get complacent. I don’t really think it’s going to be this epic Reagan-esque landslide because the data just isn’t there, but can he do well? Yeah, he needs to lock down Pennsylvania, lock down Georgia. He’s probably going to win his 2020 states regardless, okay, that’s 270 at that point. He’ll be playing with house money. He can go out there, run up the score across the country where he sees fit. He could add Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, then he could maybe look into a place like Minnesota, maybe go up to New Hampshire, maybe even have a rally in New York just for the heck of it. But you can’t take the states you need for granted because just winning is more important than pretty much anything else at this point. So anyways, guys, thanks for watching this video. Like this video down below, comment down below, subscribe to the channel, hit the bell for notifications so you never miss another video, follow me on social media, the links are all in the description down below, and I will see you guys in the next one. Red Eagle out.


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