Latest Polls: Republican Surge continues… Safe Dem seats no longer safe

2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (R) Donald Trump: 44% (+5) (D) Joe Biden: 39% (R) Donald Trump: 45% (+7) (D) Kamala Harris: 38% Joe Biden Administration Approval Ratings and Hypothetical Voting Intention (2 November 2022) – Redfield & Wilton Strategies (redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com)

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Kari Lake holds 𝟰-𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Katie Hobbs in Arizona Governor Race Kari Lake (R): 50% (+4) Katie Hobbs (D): 46% New Poll Shows Hobbs Hurt by Discrimination Lawsuit, Lake Leads Going Into Election Day – Western Tribune

ARIZONA POLLING Trends by Emerson College with leaners Sept: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 46.7% (+1.7) Blake Masters (R): 45% NOW: Blake Masters (R): 48.1 (+0.4) Mark Kelly (D-inc): 47.7% ⦿ 2.1 point swing towards Masters by one of the best AZ 2020 pollsters (Kelly +3 vs Kelly +2.4)

Governor Kari Lake (R): 50% (+3) Katie Hobbs (D): 47% Senate Blake Masters (R): 48% (=) Mark Kelly: (D-inc): 48% President Donald Trump (R): 46% (+4) Joe Biden (D-inc): 42% Arizona 2022: US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections in Dead Heat – Emerson Polling (emersoncollegepolling.com)

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Blake Masters holds 1 POINT lead over Mark Kelly in Arizona Senate Race Blake Masters (R): 48% (+1) Mark Kelly (D-inc): 47% ⦿ With leaners: 48/48 ⦿ Emerson | 1,000 LV | 10/30Arizona 2022: US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections in Dead Heat – Emerson Polling (emersoncollegepolling.com)-11/01

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Republicans hold 𝟱 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Democrats on Congressional Ballot Republicans 48% (+5) Democrats 43% Independents Republicans 46% (+13) Democrats 33% Generic Congressional Ballot – Rasmussen Reports®

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: J.D. Vance holds 𝟲 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over Tim Ryan in Ohio Senate Race (R) J.D. Vance 50% (+6) (D) Tim Ryan 44% ⦿ Cygnal (R) | N=1,498 LV | 11/03 Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 11/4/22 – Cygnal

Cygnal Poll: NEVADA 2022 Election Senate (R) Adam Laxalt: 46% (+3) (D) Catherine Cortez Masto: 43% Governor (R) Joe Lombardo: 47% (+5) (D) Steve Sisolak: 42% Congressional Ballot Republicans: 50% (R+8) Democrats: 42% New Cygnal Poll Shows Strong GOP Environment in Nevada; Republicans Laxalt and Lombardo Leading Their Races › American Greatness (amgreatness.com)

POLITICO RATING CHANGES All of the shifts going in Republicans’ direction 𝐍𝐇 𝐒𝐞𝐧 – 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐃 —> 𝐓𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐮𝐩 WA Sen – Likely D —> Lean D NY Gov – Likely D —> Lean D IA-03 – Toss Up —> Lean R NY-17 – Lean D —> Toss up Another key Senate race moves toward GOP in Election Forecast update – POLITICO

Siena Poll: FLORIDA Governor 2022 Ron DeSantis (R) 54% (+12) Charlie Crist (D) 42% Independents Ron DeSantis (R) 56% (+20) Charlie Crist (D) 36% Hispanics Ron DeSantis (R) 61% (+25) Charlie Crist (D) 36% Miami-Dade Ron DeSantis (R) 54% (+11) Charlie Crist (D) 43%

Siena Poll: FLORIDA Election 2022 Governor Ron DeSantis (R) 54% (+12) Charlie Crist (D) 42% Senate Marco Rubio (R) 51% (+8) Val Demings (D) 43% Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) 49% (+14) Aramis Ayala (D) 35% N=659 LV, Oct 30-Nov 1, 2022 Spectrum News/Siena College Florida Poll: (constantcontact.com)

PA Senate Mehmet Oz (R): 48% (+2) John Fetterman (D): 46% ⦿ @trafalgar_group | 11/02-11/03 ⦿ 1,097 LV | D47/R43/I10 (D+4) PA US Sen General – Nov 2022 – Trafalgar Group (thetrafalgargroup.org)

𝐍𝐄𝐖 𝐏𝐎𝐋𝐋: Mehmet Oz holds 𝟮 𝗣𝗢𝗜𝗡𝗧 lead over John Fetterman in Pennsylvania Senate Race Mehmet Oz (R): 48% (+2) John Fetterman (D): 46% ⦿ 4-point swing towards Oz from Oct 11, when Fetterman was up by 2 pt.

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot among Independent voters Data for Progress (D) GOP — 52% (R+11) Dem — 41% Quinnipiac GOP — 49% (R+15) Dem — 34% NPR/Marist GOP — 45% (R+12) Dem — 33% Cygnal GOP — 51% (R+9) Dem — 42%

Senate Odds NV (R) Laxalt — 67% (All time high) (D) Cortez Masto — 33% GA (R) Walker 62% (Highest since May) (D) Warnock 38% PA (R) Oz — 58% (D) Fetterman — 42% 2022 Midterms Forecast (polymarket.com)