
In a world teetering on the brink of global conflict, the deepening ties between Russia and China represent a nightmare scenario for the United States and its NATO allies. Recent joint statements and military cooperation agreements, such as the May 2025 declaration on global strategic stability signed by Presidents Putin and Xi, have fueled speculation about a formal mutual defense pact. While not yet an official alliance like NATO’s Article 5, their “no-limits” partnership—bolstered by trade deals, joint exercises, and shared opposition to U.S. hegemony—could evolve into one, especially amid escalating tensions over Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Arctic. If formalized, this pact would create an unbeatable Eurasian superpower bloc capable of overwhelming the West through sheer scale, resources, and strategic depth. As one analyst put it, Russia has virtually unlimited natural resources, from oil and gas to rare earth minerals, while China boasts a population four times that of the U.S., providing an inexhaustible manpower pool.
Add Russia’s nuclear shield, which ensures mutual assured destruction (MAD) and deters nuclear escalation, and the conflict defaults to conventional warfare—where the U.S. and its allies stand little chance against a combined Russo-Chinese force. The nuclear dimension is key to understanding why this war would remain conventional. Russia’s arsenal, estimated at 4,309 warheads in 2025, includes advanced hypersonic delivery systems that outpace U.S. defenses. In other words, as Trump says ‘Nuclear War is unwinnable’. Which means this would be conventional, and there is the problem folks. Under the extended New START treaty, both the U.S. and Russia cap deployed warheads at 1,550, but Russia’s modernization efforts—despite delays—maintain a credible second-strike capability.
China, rapidly expanding its stockpile, is projected to double its warheads by 2030, further complicating U.S. strategy. Neither side wants nuclear Armageddon; as Putin reiterated in September 2025, Russia seeks to avoid a strategic arms race but will adhere to limits for stability. This MAD equilibrium forces any confrontation into the conventional realm, where numbers and sustainability win wars. Current military statistics paint a grim picture for the West. According to 2025 Global Firepower rankings, the U.S. holds the top spot individually, followed by Russia and China. But in an alliance scenario, the scales tip dramatically. Let’s break it down as we must also understand that China can have a 100-million-man army in just a few years if needed. Keep that in mind, these figures are just as of now on September 24. 2025.



China’s navy, the world’s largest by hull count, controls vital sea lanes, while Russia’s submarine fleet threatens Atlantic convoys. In a two-front war, U.S. forces would be stretched thin. Financially, the combined defense budgets of Russia ($126B) and China ($267B) approach $393B, rivaling the U.S.’s $895B but with lower costs and domestic production advantages. Russia’s resource self-sufficiency and China’s manufacturing prowess mean they can outlast Western sanctions, as seen in Ukraine. Hypothetical scenarios underscore the peril. In a RAND study on protracted U.S.-China wars, outcomes favor China in drawn-out conflicts due to proximity and reserves. A NATO-Russia clash sees NATO’s numerical edge eroded by Russia’s artillery dominance and hybrid tactics. Combined, as in a “War of 2026” simulation, Russia and China exploit multi-theater attacks, from the Pacific to Europe, fragmenting U.S. alliances. Iran’s and North Korea’s involvement, via Russia’s partnerships, adds proxy fronts. The U.S. has no chance in such a conventional slugfest. Overextended globally, with aging equipment and recruitment shortfalls, America relies on technology—but quantity has a quality of its own.
Russia’s resources fuel endless war machines, China’s masses provide cannon fodder, and their pact neutralizes nuclear options. The West’s destruction wouldn’t come from a single battle but from exhaustion, economic collapse, and internal division. To avert this, diplomacy is essential—but with the pact looming, time is running out.
Links
- 2025 Military Strength Ranking – Global Firepower
- Global Firepower – 2025 World Military Strength Rankings
- USA vs Russia vs China vs India Military Power Comparison 2025
- Russia vs USA vs China | Air Power Comparison 2025 (Part-1)
- USA and NATO vs RUSSIA and CHINA – Who Would Win … – YouTube
- Russia vs. Nato: who would win in a war? – The Week
- [PDF] 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment
- An Interactive Look at the U.S.-China Military Scorecard – RAND
- Russia and China Military Cooperation: Just Short of an Alliance
- China-Russia-Ukraine: May 2025 | Council on Foreign Relations
- Joint statement by the Russian Federation and the People’s …
- PRC and Russia Operationalize Strategic Partnership – Jamestown
- China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers
- JUST IN: China, Russia Increase Arctic Cooperation, But Distrust …
- A realistic plan to bring Russia and China back to nuclear arms …
- Putin offers Trump one-year extension to nuclear weapons treaty
- Putin says Russia will stick to nuclear arms limits for 1 more year
- Russian nuclear weapons, 2025 – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
- Putin Proposes One More Year of Nuclear Caps With U.S.
- Understanding the Two Nuclear Peer Debate
- Nuclear risks grow as new arms race looms—new SIPRI Yearbook …
- Russian novel nuclear weapons and strategic nuclear deterrence …
- [PDF] Winning Conventional Regional Wars Against Nuclear-Armed …
- [PDF] Thinking Through Protracted War with China: Nine Scenarios – RAND
- The War of 2026: Phase III Scenario – U.S. Naval Institute
- The United States and the “Axis” of Its Enemies: Myths vs. Reality
- NATO Member States Military Ranking (2025) – Global Firepower
- NATO active personnel by country 2025| Statista
- NATO tank numbers by country 2025| Statista
- Infographic: Army Sizes of NATO, Russia and Ukraine
- Comparison of China and Russia Military Strengths (2025)
- NATO Russia military comparison 2025| Statista
- 2025 United States Military Strength
- 2025 Russia Military Strength
- 2025 China Military Strength
More
It’s important to visualise the scale of Russian and American military power.
Both powers dominate each other in certain areas of the battlefield.
But it’s Russia that now has the vastly superior battlefield experience. Ironically, because of a War engineered by the US. pic.twitter.com/0zg1XfoGXa
— Chay Bowes (@BowesChay) October 3, 2024
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