China’s Failing Economy is Leading to Protests – Let them fall!

Protests have erupted in China. Furious workers are demanding back pay. While Trump’s recent tariffs are playing a role in, a lot of these protests are actually due to pre-existing grievances with the CCP’s economic failures, dating back years.

• Shenzhen is zombieland. Truly a modern dystopia.
• How about Quad Stuffed Oreos? … OH, Robert’s gonna hate that joke.
• Question: was there anything any of you would have bought from China before the tarrifs? If yes, then what?
• The joking today is fabulous! If if the house has a heart and a brain all it needs is courage – perhaps they should give themselves a medal (wizard of oz)….
• Pooh Bear isnt stupid though unfortunately. he knows that if he keeps the military on his side then the country will stay under his charge. 9:03 won’t have a bed to lay in, your welcome.
• I have read science fiction my entire life. Never have I read anything as dystopian as organ harvesting of people who just want to improve their own lives spiritually
• Good. Late but ok. My undergrad school, University of Pittsburgh, I suspect it has cooperation in organ transplant with China.

Overview

• Tariff Levels: Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods in February 2025, increased to 20% in March, and escalated to 145% by April 9, 2025, following China’s retaliatory tariffs of 125%. These high tariffs have made Chinese exports to the U.S., worth over $400 billion annually, increasingly uncompetitive.
• Export Drop: Ocean container bookings from China to the U.S. dropped by 60% after the April tariff hikes, with industries like furniture, toys, apparel, and footwear seeing a “complete halt” in U.S. orders. Goldman Sachs estimated that the tariffs could reduce China’s GDP by up to 2.4 percentage points
• Factory Contraction: China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in April 2025, indicating contraction and the weakest reading since December 2023. Export shipments reportedly plunged by up to 60%, with factories laying off workers or shutting down entirely. One analyst described the impact as “way bigger” than the COVID-19 crisis.
• Canceled Orders: U.S. importers have canceled orders from China, leading to abandoned freight and unpaid customs duties at ports. This has disrupted logistics, with port officials reporting uncertainty about handling unclaimed cargo
• Relocation Efforts: Chinese exporters have attempted to mitigate tariffs by moving production to countries like Vietnam or India, but Trump’s global tariffs (e.g., 46% on Vietnam) have limited these options. This has left exporters with few alternatives to maintain U.S. market access
• Slowing Growth: China’s economy grew by 1.2% in Q1 2025 (annualized at 4.9%), driven by pre-tariff export surges and government subsidies for consumer goods. However, the tariffs threaten to derail this growth, with estimates suggesting a potential 1.3 percentage point GDP reduction
• The tariffs exacerbate China’s deflationary pressures, as producers cut costs and lay off workers to remain competitive. Factories are reportedly reducing management costs and employee numbers, with some, like a cast-iron bathtub manufacturer, already implementing layoffs.
• China has allowed the yuan to weaken, making exports more attractive but risking capital flight and inflation. The yuan hit levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis in April 2025 before a slight rebound.
• China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods, reaching 125% by April 12, 2025, targeting sectors like agriculture, oil, and machinery. Non-tariff measures include export bans on rare-earth metals, import suspensions (e.g., U.S. sorghum and poultry), and investigations into U.S. firms like Google.
• China is seeking alliances to counter U.S. pressure, with Xi Jinping inviting the EU and Southeast Asian nations to resist U.S. “bullying.” However, the tariffs have reduced demand from other markets hit by Trump’s global levies, complicating China’s efforts to diversify exports
• China’s restrictions on critical minerals like gallium and germanium aim to pressure U.S. tech industries, but Trump’s administration is investigating ways to reduce reliance on these supplies.
• The U.S.-China tariff war has caused significant market turmoil, with the Dow dropping 2,200 points and the S&P 500 falling 6% in early April 2025, marking the worst week since 2020. China’s markets also faced pressure, with state-linked enterprises buying shares to stabilize them.
• Investors are wary of prolonged uncertainty, with some analysts predicting further stock market declines due to the trade war’s unpredictability. The International Monetary Fund raised its U.S. inflation forecast to 3% for 2025 and lowered U.S. growth projections, citing tariff-related risks
• Mainstream sources (e.g., Reuters, The New York Times) emphasize the economic damage to both the U.S. and China, portraying the tariffs as a risky escalation with global consequences. They highlight China’s resilience through retaliatory measures and export diversification but warn of long-term growth challenges
• The absence of primary evidence for protests limits conclusions about public unrest. Economic impacts are better documented, but the long-term effects depend on whether the U.S. and China negotiate a deal, as Trump has suggested, or continue decoupling. China’s ability to achieve its 5% GDP growth target hinges on domestic stimulus and alternative markets, both of which face challenges

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