See below for full text and links to latest polls
Hello everybody and welcome back to Red Eagle Politics. Make sure you guys like this video down below and subscribe to the channel if you are new. So currently it is February 2nd, 2024, we’re about 9 months and a little bit of change away from the 2024 presidential election. We did the prediction yesterday for that, but it also coincides with the very important 2024 Senate races which do dictate the outcome of which party gets control of the Senate, which is absolutely huge because if you have the presidency and you have the Senate and you have the house, well, you have a clear pathway to not just assume power but to get things done. And that we know, and Republicans have an extremely favorable map in terms of the Senate. This is basically a foolproof map to uh 51 seats to retake the Senate, and they only need technically 50 if Donald Trump wins the presidency, but it’s very likely that if Trump does win the presidency, they’re going to end up with more than 50, which would kind of pad their majority, and also be more of a rhino-proof majority to the point where you look at some of these other people like Murkowski, Collins, etc., their influence is going to wane, and Republicans will be able to pass through more solid legislation, they will have more of a mandate to do so. So without further ado, I think we need to fill this map out. We’re going to start off with the safe Republican states, and we’re going to work our way to some of the more competitive states. So here we go, in the safe column, we have North Dakota, Wyoming, Utah, which is interesting to see what happens in the primary there, Mitt Romney is now retiring, so there’s a very good chance Republicans could get a massive upgrade or a virtual flip in Utah. Also, Nebraska, in terms of the special election, the state party is endorsing Weaver instead of Ricketts, which would be a massive upgrade there as well. So, we’ll really have to see what happens there, but the state party endorsing an actual America First-style challenger to the sitting Senator, that’s unprecedented, we’ll see how that shakes out, but could be another upgrade.
Then Missouri, Indiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, all of these states are going to be in the safe Republican column. Also, the state of West Virginia, which previously was supposed to be slightly competitive, I always thought it would vote red by more than 10 points, but now that Manchin’s officially retiring, any money that would have been poured into West Virginia can be poured into other states like Montana or Ohio. So out of the gate, Republicans have a floor of 48 Senate seats. Democrats, on the other hand, will give them California, Washington, Minnesota just because Klobuchar is such a juggernaut up there, and a lot of these states in the Mid-Atlantic, although I would watch New Jersey just based off of the primary there. If Menendez manages to squeak out a victory, it’s possible that he could have a very competitive race or possibly even lose to a Republican depending on the challenger there. But either way, Democrats, they have a floor of 40 because you cannot forget the state of Hawaii down there. So now we have to fill out the likely Republican states, the states that are going to be going for the Republican Party by 5 to 10 percentage points when it’s all said and done. We could start off with the state of Florida, which has been moving to the right, the Democrats in Florida are in shambles. Rick Scott, he usually wins elections by the skin of his teeth, but there really is not a challenger that’s going to be in the running that’s going to give him a run for his money, and Trump’s probably going to win the state by more than five. I think Rick Scott will end up winning the state by more than five points too when it’s all said and done.
Poll: Trump, Lake Lead Democrats in Arizona in Hypothetical Match-Ups – Leo Terrel – linking to Breitbart
So in terms of the other likely states, I think that might be it, uh, you could argue Texas, but we’re probably going to, well actually yeah, why don’t we just put Texas in the likely Republican column. It seems like the state might be turning a corner at least for this election cycle, and I do believe Trump is going to win the state by more than he won it by in 2020, and even though Cruz isn’t super popular, some polls had him up by like 10 points over O’Rourke, who’s very overrated, and the other guy the Democrats are putting up that’s probably going to lose the primary by a lot. But Texas, we’ll put that one in the likely Republican column. Democrats can dream about Texas, but it’s likely not going to happen even though Ted Cruz is kind of not really super likable even among Republicans, they’re still going to end up voting for him at the end of the day. So out of the gate, Republicans, if you include the likely states, they have a floor of 50. Democrats, you could add Maine, which possibly could be pushed to the safe column, also the state of New Mexico as well, even though this is one to watch cuz it possibly could be interesting because the Republicans are putting up the daughter, or one of the daughters I believe, of the former electoral juggernaut in the state, Pete Domenici, so we’ll see if that has any impact on the race, but as of right now, we’ll put that one as likely Democrat, it is subject to change. So Democrats, including the likely states, their floor is 42. Republicans have a very clear pathway to an expanded majority here on this map, but we’re going to fill out the, you know, lean states first, which are competitive but are likely going to go in the direction of either party by two to five percentage points, then we’ll get to the pure toss-ups, the tilt states, which could end up tilting either direction. So without further ado, for the Republicans, we have the state of Ohio, and this one is absolutely huge. It seems like the Republican party is coalescing behind Bernie Moreno, he has deep pockets, it seems like he’s going to be the nominee, he’s somebody that is in good graces with the Trump base, and with Trump on the ticket, he’s going to be turning out a lot of these lower propensity voters that might not vote in, you know, midterm years, for example, and as a result, you’re going to see Ohio go in the Republican column and Sherrod Brown will likely go down in his Senate race just because of the drag on the ballot that Biden will bring. Trump won the state in 2020 by 8 percentage points, a little bit more than that, a recent poll came out today showing him up by 11, and usually polls in Ohio have underestimated Trump. I think Trump’s going to win the state by around 10 when it’s all said and done, I think he’s going to take Bernie Moreno with him uh to a victory of a couple of points.
There are some polls that have him like tied with Sherrod Brown, but Brown’s an incumbent and he’s polling at like 40% when Moreno gets his name ID up, I think he very well can get that clear advantage over Brown, I think he will win. Up next we have the state of Montana, which is another seat that’s held by an incumbent Democrat that is in a state that’s going to vote heavily for Trump, probably by more than 10 points. Montana voted for Trump by closer to 17 points back in 2020, back in 2016 it voted for Trump by like almost 20 points, around that margin. I think you’re going to see Trump win the state by probably at least 17 this time around, and we’ll see what happens in terms of his total margin because yeah, voters who vote third party, which are going to be in higher share this time around and were in higher share back in 2016 than 2020, they may be more inclined to split their ticket for John Tester, who is arguably the fakest moderate in the entire world, but still I think Trump’s margin of victory is going to be too wide to overcome. I don’t know who the nominee is going to be, it’s probably going to be Tim Sheehy, Matt Rosendale I like him, but I think he waited too long, his fundraising numbers are in the gutter.
Quinnipiac, The Pollster Showing Biden in the Lead This Week, Ranks 36th for Accuracy.
Read more:https://t.co/Nd5sobjuTv
A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by s…
— Raheem. (@RaheemKassam) February 2, 2024
I think Sheehy will be the nominee, I think he will win the state by 2 to 5 percentage points, he’ll win it by a much narrower margin than Donald Trump, but I believe he still will win it, especially because Steve Daines is in control of Senate funding, he’s going to want another Republican senator to serve with for sure, that’s a big part of it. So the lean Democrat states, we have Virginia, which I think could turn a corner, you could make a case this is likely Democrat, I’m not going to entirely disagree with you, but still, Tim Kaine, his approval rating, pretty average uh for a Democrat in the state of Virginia, on top of that you have Republicans potentially running star candidate and overperformer Hung Cao for the Senate seat. Is it going to be enough? I don’t think so, you would like it to be close, but I think there’s a very good chance Virginia does turn a corner and it could be closer than a lot of people would have originally anticipated it to be. Up next we have the state of Pennsylvania, and this is a seat that’s currently held by Bob Casey. I think Trump’s going to win Pennsylvania, I predicted in my video yesterday for the presidential race that he would, but still Bob Casey will likely overperform, he likely will get not a significant chunk of Trump voters to vote for him, but probably enough to the point where he’s going to be able to win, and he kind of just has that name ID. Yes, he’s also a fake moderate, no, it does not matter to a lot of people because there’s a good portion of the population that just votes based on vibes, and they know oh this is the Casey guy, oh I’ll vote for him down ballot, some of these people. And Dave McCormick, he’s very overrated, he has deep pockets, he’s not going to be a drag on the ticket, but uh, he is not exactly going to be somebody that will have a very clear shot at victory either in the state of Pennsylvania.
Joe Biden just received more bad news. A major poll from Bloomberg reveals that Trump is beating Biden handily in multiple swing states. If these polls hold true, Trump would triumph in one of the most lopsided elections in recent history. Here are the numbers: • Wisconsin: Trump +5 • Pennsylvania: Trump +3 • Nevada: Trump +8 • Georgia: Trump +8 • Michigan: Trump +5 • North Carolina: Trump +10 • Arizona: Trump +3 See clip below
Joe Biden just received more bad news.
A major poll from Bloomberg reveals that Trump is beating Biden handily in multiple swing states.
If these polls hold true, Trump would triumph in one of the most lopsided elections in recent history.
Here are the numbers:
• Wisconsin:… pic.twitter.com/sdIhG9pwkl
— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) February 2, 2024
So without further ado, we will go directly to the more competitive states, the tilt states, the states that will go in either direction by two percentage points or less, and we can start off with the state of Michigan where I also predicted Donald Trump would have a narrow victory in the state, but still the Republican party there, they’re having a divisive primary for Senate, that’s never a good sign. I do believe James Craig will be the nominee, I think he could win, I think if the Democrats nominate Harper, I’d be more inclined to put this one in the Republican column, but as of right now, I’m going to be putting Michigan in the tilt Democrat column because Elissa Slotkin is one of those fake moderates, she’s probably going to be the Democrat nominee. I could very well see Michigan splitting for Trump and her, even though it’s going to be by a very very narrow margin at the end of the day. And up next we have the state of Wisconsin, Republicans, I’d be more inclined to believe that they’re going to pick off the state of Wisconsin if they actually had a candidate. I don’t believe David Clarke is going to be running, I don’t believe he’s going to be the nominee, I think it’s going to be Eric Hovde, and it’s a little bit of a gamble, I don’t really know how good of a candidate he really is. I think some people will end up viewing him as like a Dave McCormick but not as like awful on the issues or whatever, but still Tammy Baldwin, she’s kind of an institution, I think she’ll get by by the skin of her teeth when it’s all said and done. I think Trump being on the ballot is going to help out Hovde significantly, I think Trump wins the state by like 2 to 3, and I think the Senate race will probably just narrowly go for Baldwin for one more term there in the state of Wisconsin, but it is subject to change, a lot of things can change between now and November, so it’s still a race that if Republicans are locking down Ohio and Montana and uh possibly Arizona and Nevada, yeah, Wisconsin, Michigan, those are very much still in play for Republicans to win. So up next, you have the state of Arizona, and things are getting interesting here, Kari Lake is likely going to be the Republican nominee for Senate, but then there’s this whole thing going on where she recorded the former state GOP official attempting to bribe her, it was just egregiously uh corrupt behavior coming from the chairman uh Jeff DeWit, but he’s now stepped down, but the Arizona stuff, there’s just so much we don’t know about this race. Is Sinema even going to run? Because there’s been recent indications that she’s not going to run, there has been a lot of debate over whether that would help Kari Lake or if it would hurt her because Ruben Gallego is somebody who is very very far left, and you have a lot of people even on the Republican side who would like park their support for Sinema despite the fact that Sinema’s voting record is just as liberal as Ruben Gallego’s and her whole moderate stick is an entire LARP, and that we know.
JUST IN: Donald Trump is now leading Biden in 7 swing states according to a new Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll. According to the poll, Trump is demolishing Biden in Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and is gaining ground in Pennsylvania. Wisconsin: Trump +5 Trump: 49% Biden: 44% Nevada: Trump +8 Trump: 48% Biden: 40% Michigan: Trump +5 Trump: 47% Biden: 42% Georgia: Trump +8 Trump: 49% Biden: 41% North Carolina: Trump +10 Trump: 49% Biden: 39% Arizona: Trump +3 Trump: 47% Biden: 44% Pennsylvania: Trump +3 Trump: 48% Biden: 45% Insane. – Collin Rugg
I think that there’s a very good chance Lake pulls this out at the end of the day um but as of right now I think I’m just going to leave it as a tossup just for the sake of pure uncertainty, and we just don’t know what’s going to happen, we don’t know if this uh divide within the state party is going to be rectified, maybe within a month we’d have more polling that we could look at. I know a Lake internal had her up over Gallego by a couple of points, I think it’s possible, but because I had Donald Trump falling short in the presidential election prediction this month, I think it’s probably likely that Arizona Senate race would fall with that, especially with you know, Maricopa County, it’s going to be very close, it’ll be very close, but the left turning Maricopa County, yeah, a couple days after the election, it’s very likely they’ll call it for Gallego and Biden, even if Trump wins nationwide. But the state of Nevada, on the other hand, which is another very very competitive state, and Democrats are running scared in Nevada, they’re pouring a bunch of money into Nevada because they know that Jackie Rosen’s in a lot of trouble. Donald Trump likely picks off the state, the polls have him up by like seven in the aggregate, I don’t think it’s going to hold at that point, but still down ballot, I believe that if Sam Brown’s the nominee, he might run like a point behind Trump at most, and as a result, that’s going to be more than enough to pick off Nevada because the incumbency advantage, it’s real, but it matters a lot less in a presidential year.
The funding down ballot as well, the funding advantage, a lot of people thought the Democrats would gain significantly in the house because of that ahead of 2020, and because of Trump’s presence on the ballot, Democrats ended up losing like a dozen House seats or so, and that’s partially why Republicans have the majority right now. So as a result, this is the final map, it’s subject to change, Republicans will end up with 53 Senate seats, they will retake the Senate, Democrats, however, they will end up with 47. Republicans get a rhino-proof majority, yes, it’s possible Lake wins, I’m rooting for her, it’s possible James Craig wins, I’m rooting for him, it’s possible that Wisconsin flips, I’ll be rooting for the Republican nominee there, and 56 I think is the absolute ceiling, but still 53, that’s not bad, and that’s a lot more of a solid majority than Trump had going into his presidency when you factor out the fact that there’s a lot less rhinos in this 53 than there was in that majority. So anyways guys, thanks for watching this video, like this video down below, comment down below, subscribe to the channel, hit the bell for notifications so you never miss another video, and I will see you guys in the next one, Red Eagle out.
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