The Senate Just Got A LOT Easier for Republicans… Latest polls – Whatfinger News' Choice Clips
Whatfinger News' Choice Clips

The Senate Just Got A LOT Easier for Republicans… Latest polls

Republican chances of retaking the Senate continue to grow as we are following where the money is going.  FULL text is below for those who prefer to read or who can’t listen or watch video where they are…. 

Hello everybody and welcome back to Rigle Politics. Make sure you guys like this video down below and subscribe to the channel if you are new. So, this is the 2024 Senate map. Republicans basically have a foolproof map to retake the Senate. If they are not able to do that, it would just be absolutely beyond me. They are unlikely to mess this up because you have Montana and Ohio up for grabs, up for the taking. You have two Senators who vote like they are senators of California, Oregon, New York, Massachusetts, or Maryland instead of Montana and Ohio. These are both states that Donald Trump is likely going to win by double digits this time around.

Donald Trump has those coattails when he gets those people out to vote who usually do not turn out to vote. He carries the Republicans down ballot with him. In some cases, they may outperform Donald Trump because all of the Trump base will vote for them, and then they might be able to peel off some of those squishy, more center-leaning, center-left, or center-right voters that happen to fall into those like never-Trump Republican camp. So, Donald Trump should be in a very good position in both of those states, and they should be in a good position, in terms of the Republicans as a whole, to retake the Senate. They will likely end up with 52 Senate seats or more.

But we got even more good news about the Senate, and this kind of goes to show that 52 might be the floor now. A lot can happen, but I think we need to follow the money. Republicans are ambitiously trying to take Montana’s Senate seat and Ohio. What they are doing is they’ve now reserved $50 million in ad buys for Republicans in Montana to topple John Tester. That is absolutely huge because they need to do that in order to retake the Senate. Montana is going to be a state that will go heavily in Donald Trump’s column. He will probably win it by 15 points at a minimum. It’s possible that he wins it by close to 20 points or more. Even though it has split tickets in the past, this is a presidential year, and neither John Tester nor Sherrod Brown have withstood a serious challenge when Donald Trump has been on the ballot.

You’re looking at the big picture here. They’re spending a lot of money in Montana. They’re serious this time about retaking the Senate. They’re not going to store all of their money in safe red seats. They’re not going to throw all their money at seats that they can’t win. They’re actually playing to win this time around, which is absolutely huge. Ohio is another Senate race that matters a lot. Republicans have a clear front runner now, Bernie Moreno, who is starting to pull away. In some other polls that are not listed here, he’s doing much better than 22%. He’s getting close to a majority of the Republicans on his side. He also picked up the Donald Trump endorsement as well, which is absolutely huge. He’s getting the whole party apparatus, for the most part, to coalesce behind him. This means that he’s going to go out there and win the primary by more than originally expected, which is absolutely huge because you need to do that. You need to have a statement victory in the primary, unite the party behind you sooner.

We didn’t see that a whole lot in a lot of these late primaries in 2022. But if Moreno does this early, because the primary is going to be taking place in March, it’s not going to be taking place in August, he’s going to have a full 6 months or so on that campaign trail leading up to the general election. As a result, he’s going to give them the best shot. He is somebody that can relate to those Trump voters, so you don’t exactly have as many ticket splitters in the process in a lot of these places in the state of Ohio. That is an absolute victory for Republicans if they’re able to coalesce behind him. His chances of victory go up even more so than they already are. They’re going to be funding him, which they have committed to. They haven’t committed to pouring in $50 million worth of ad buys just yet. They’re probably going to wait until after the primary to do that. But Ohio, you can chalk that one up as a red state. In fact, Montana probably will be lean, if not even likely, and Ohio, I think putting that as tilt to lean is more fair.

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All right, guys, welcome back to the video. So, you also have to look at how Democrats are acting because they know that they’re playing defense. After this ad buy was placed, they put up a more measly ad buy for an incumbent Senator, but they could only put up 27 million. They’re losing the money fight in Montana, but they’re also very, very worried. They are very, very afraid about Nevada. Republicans probably would have taken the Senate seat last time around, the one that Adam Laxalt ran for the Catherine Cortez Masto seat. They probably would have won that if they put enough resources into it. They were outspent like 4 to 1, and even then, it took a late-minute snowstorm for Republicans to go out there and lose that race. But Jackie Rosen, she honestly is probably lesser known than Cortez Masto, who had name ID problems in the state of Nevada. And Republicans seem to be coalescing behind Sam Brown, and it seems like he’s going to be their candidate, so they’re probably going to avoid a long drawn-out primary there as well.

Nolte: Trump Polling Better Than Any GOP Presidential Candidate in 20 Years – Breitbart

But what this shows is that they are going out there, and they are throwing a ridiculous amount of money in a seat that not a lot of people really say is going to be an automatic flip or it’s one of these places. And I’m not saying that Republicans are guaranteed to take Nevada. I think that if Trump wins the state, it’s very possible that the Senate seat is going to be on a knife’s edge once again. It could go either way; it could be decided within a few votes either way. Nevada, even though it’s been moving right, is not exactly like this really solid Republican state. But overall, you’re looking at that, you’re looking at Nevada, and the fact that Democrats are pouring a ridiculous amount of money in Nevada tells me they’re scared. And I’m not for sure going to say that it’s like an insta flip on the map or anything, but this is going to be a competitive state. We kind of went from talking about Montana and Ohio being the competitive states, which they still are, but Democrats are playing defense in Nevada. They’re going to be playing defense in Michigan. You look at all those polls with Donald Trump up by eight in Michigan. Folks, Stabenow’s retiring; that’s going to be an open seat. If Donald Trump wins the state by like two points, I’m not even saying that’s guaranteed, but if it happens, yeah, I think James Craig, if he’s the nominee, can defeat Alyssa Slotkin, who is probably going to be the nominee for the Democrats. Or if they have Harper, who’s like one of these far-left individuals, if he becomes the nominee, I think Republicans are going to have a very, very good shot at flipping that Senate seat there.

NATIONAL POLL: Morning Consult Trump: 44% [-1] Biden: 42% [+2] Independents Trump: 42% [+4] Biden: 30% [+2] — R. Primary Trump: 81% [=] Haley: 18% [=] [Change vs January 21] — 6,487 RV (Pres) | 4,044 R’s | 1/26-28  Morning Consult (Left Wing Pollster)

So, there’s a lot of paths to an expanded majority, a RINO-proof majority. You also have Mitt Romney retiring in Utah. You have the Republican Party of Nebraska supporting an actual conservative, an actual like non-run-of-the-mill Republican in that Senate race above the incumbent institution known as Pete Ricketts. I don’t know if that’s exactly going to pan out. I don’t know if that’s exactly going to be like an instant primary victory, but either way, I mean, that’s what you got to do. You got to go in these deep red states; that’s kind of where you get your more solid conservative America First candidates because they can thrive electorally in that environment, and they can shift the Overton window of the party and of the Senate where it needs to be. There’s a lot of focus on these swing states, and I think that we need to focus on them too, but in terms of like the primaries and getting the weak RINOs out, there should be no excuse for a Mitt Romney or run-of-the-mill pushover conservative in a state that votes Republican by more than like 5 percentage points, and that we know. So, it’s good that Republicans are kind of waking up to that fact.

But also, you talk about other races like Texas. It does seem like the border crisis is going to hurt Democrats there. They’re going to throw a ridiculous amount of money trying to take out Ted Cruz because he’s got name ID. It’s probably not going to work whatsoever. Texas is going to stay red at the presidential level. Ted Cruz is going to get reelected fairly easily. So, you look at this; it’s looking good for Republicans in terms of their chances at holding the Senate, but we’ll have to see what the final margin ends up being. We’ve got a long way to go, but I’d say that they’re probably a 95% lock to retake the Senate. Let’s see if they’ll fumble that away too, but judging from the map and judging from the fact that Trump is going to be on the ballot, I think it’s unlikely the Democrats are going to take the Senate again.

So, anyways, guys, thanks for watching this video. Like this video down below, comment down below, subscribe to the channel, hit the bell for notifications so you never miss another video, follow me on social media, the links are all in the description down below, and I will see you guys in the next one. Red Eagle out.

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